Douglas, Wyoming 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

236
FXUS65 KCYS 131720
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1020 AM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds will continue in the wind prone areas today with a
  few gusts to around 60 mph expected.

- A weak cold front passing through this evening will bring
  scattered rain and snow showers into early Wednesday morning.

- Elevated fire weather concerns will be present daily through
  the weekend due to breezy to windy conditions, continued mild
  temperatures, and low humidity.

- Widespread strong winds are possible across the region
  Thursday through Saturday, with the best chance on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 400 AM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

It`s a very mild night once again across the area today, as breezy
conditions and plentiful mid to high level cloud cover keep this
morning`s low temperatures near average mid-January high
temperatures. GOES satellite imagery shows cloud cover spreading
over the entire area in the exit region of a strong jet streak in
the persistent northwest flow aloft. We are currently under the
right exit region, corresponding to synoptic descent, which is
helping to maintain breezy to windy conditions through the night.
While 700-mb winds and 700-mb height gradients are unimpressive this
morning, we do have fairly potent surface pressure gradients across
the typical gap wind areas. The latest mesoanalysis shows Craig to
Casper 850-mb height gradients of at least 60-m and Arlington to
Bordeaux MSLP gradients of around 5-6 mb. These parameters would
generally support high winds in the wind prone areas despite
somewhat unfavorable northwest wind direction aloft. As a result,
another High Wind Warning was issued for the Arlington and Bordeaux
areas through noon today. Most gusts should be in the 45 to 55 mph
range, but a few periodic gusts near 60 mph are expected. We will
also need to watch the I-80 summit for a possible expansion of this
warning, but decided to leave the zone out for now due to
conflicting signals. The MSLP gradients depicted in most model
fields across the zone appear sufficient for high winds, but the 700-
mb gradients and wind speeds remain lackluster through the day. The
I-80 summit is typically less sensitive to the surface pressure
gradient in reaching 60+ mph, but overall this is a fairly low
confidence forecast.

Today will be another mild day for the area, but the increased cloud
cover should knock down highs by a few degrees compared to
yesterday. We will also be watching the progression of a vort-max
pushing southward on the western flank of the broad upper level
trough encompassing much of the central US. This feature is expected
to nudge a weak back-door cold front into the area. The combination
of frontogenesis, low-level convergence between a region of NNW flow
and a region of WNW flow, and modest warm air advection overrunning
the stalled frontal boundary is expected to support increasing
coverage of precipitation this afternoon and evening. Expect this to
start near the US-20 corridor around early afternoon, and then push
slowly south and west as the frontal boundary struggles to push
itself against the mountains. Despite this being technically a cold
front in mid-January, the air-masses on both sides of the boundary
will still be fairly mild for this time of year. Temperatures will
remain so warm that areas below about 5000` in elevation can expect
to see all or mostly rain with any precipitation that manages to
fall. Above 7000`, this will be all or mostly snow, whereas the
elevation range from 5000 to 7000 ft can expect a mix of rain/snow
as snow levels gradually drop through the evening. PoPs and QPF were
increased with this forecast package, as Hi-res models are quite
aggressive with precipitation coverage and amounts today. This
follows the general trend this season of these marginal cold fronts
initially looking dry, but then managing to produce fairly
widespread light precipitation once they get into the short range.
Precipitation is likely to be banded in nature, so isolated areas
could see over 0.25" liquid precipitation, but the coverage of such
totals is expected to be quite low. The most favored areas for
precipitation will be inside roughly a triangle cornered at Laramie,
Douglas, and Kimball. This is where the front is expected to stall
as it pushes against the Laramie Range. The most aggressive ensemble
suite (the HREF) gives most of this area approximately a 50% chance
of 0.1" or more of liquid, although other ensemble systems (e.g. NBM
and REFS) have probabilities around 10 to 30%. The Laramie and Snowy
Ranges, as well as portions of the I-25 corridor mainly in Laramie
County will have a chance for some travel impacts due to snow. Due
to some uncertainty in the placement of banded precipitation,
probabilities for 1" of snow remain fairly low (around 30% for the I-
80 summit and the I-25 corridor north of Cheyenne). We will need to
monitor this potential through the day today.

A few rain and snow showers will linger into Wednesday morning as
the stalled frontal boundary gets pushed back to the east by the
western ridge re-strenghtening. Temperatures will remain around 10-
15F above average for this time of year, but should be a bit cooler
than Tuesday. Gusty northwest winds will remain present for yet
another day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 400 AM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

The amplified western ridge / eastern trough pattern will continue
to dominate the synoptic weather pattern into the weekend. The next
weather maker of concern will be another vort-max / shortwave trough
diving down from the north on Thursday, followed by a stronger
shortwave Thursday night. Ahead of these systems, we should manage
another warm day on Thursday with 700-mb temperatures cresting
Thursday morning around +2C. This will then quickly crash towards a
minimum of around -10 to -12C on Friday morning. Currently, this
system is expected to have very little moisture. NAEFS mean
precipitable water values drop to near the climatological 10th
percentile on Friday, indicating an extremely dry airmass. Still, we
will have some lifting present Thursday night through Friday night
as mid-level frontogenesis moves into the area. Therefore, some
light snow showers will be possible during this period. The
probability of any accumulation is quite low, but there may be some
radar echoes and flurries spotted. The NBM has essentially 0 PoPs in
for this period, but this may need to be nudged upward if models
continue the trend this season of only picking up on this frontal
shower activity at the last minute.

The main concern with these features will not be the precipitation
though, as another round of strong winds is increasingly likely. A
strong northwest to southeast pressure gradient will push in
Thursday evening, and likely won`t dissipate until Saturday morning.
This gradient will not be well aligned with our gap wind areas, so
the wind prone areas are only showing up with approximately a 20 to
40% chance for high winds at Arlington and Bordeaux at this time.
However, LREF mean 700-mb wind speeds exceed 70 knots over a large
portion of the Nebraska panhandle early Friday morning with modest
synoptic descent over the entire area (aside from perhaps some
narrow ascent associated with the frontal boundary). It is always
quite difficult for the High Plains to hit High Wind criteria at
night, but most models continue to show the strong winds continuing
into the day on Friday. Forecast soundings show mixed boundary
layers up to around 725-mb in the Nebraska panhandle, with wind
speeds exceeding 60 knots in this layer. Scottsbluff, Alliance, and
Chadron all have a ~60% chance of exceeding 60 mph on Friday, and a
20-30% chance to exceed 70 mph. These probabilities are quite high
for this lead time especially outside of the wind prone areas. We
will also need to watch the I-80 summit, as some models (e.g. the
GFS) have 700-mb winds exceeding 70 knots. NBM probabilities for
gusts exceeding 80 mph are around 30 to 40%. Near the mountains,
this will be a bora wind event with much colder temperatures
expected compared to our other high wind events so far this season.
Most of the area can expect highs in the 30s on Friday. Despite the
cold temperatures, extremely low dewpoint values will keep the RH
fairly low. We will need to watch for grassland fire weather danger
during this event.

Winds should finally come down Saturday morning, but expect to
remain breezy to windy through Sunday as well as temperatures
moderate back to the 10-15F above average we have seen so much of
this season. The broad west coast ridge will continue to block any
moisture from the Pacific into next week, with nearly all ensembles
remaining completely dry through about the 21st of January.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1020 AM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

High clouds will blanket the CWA for most of this TAF period. CIGs
with briefly lower for several hours as a cold front approaches the
region this afternoon, increasing precipitation chances. MVFR to as
low as IFR conditions are possible if snow and/or rain showers pass
over a terminal. SN is more likely at KLAR while a RA/SN mix for
KCYS, and RA for the remaining terminals. Winds will be breezy once
again with northwest-north winds gusting 25 to 35 knots, impacting
all terminals into the evening hours.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until noon MST today for WYZ106-110.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...RZ