Douglas, Wyoming 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

141
FXUS65 KCYS 142029
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
229 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures and near critical fire weather conditions are
  expected today onwards.

- Isolated to widely scattered PM showers and thunderstorms will
  return for today through the weekend with slightly cooler
  temperatures this weekend.

- Hot and dry conditions return for the upcoming work week with
  only minimal precipitation chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 227 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Hi-res guidance still shows an upper level disturbance moving
through this afternoon and evening. Model soundings still show a
deep inverted V, meaning deep mixing throughout the afternoon
leading to high based showers. There is some disagreement between
models about CAPE and Shear within the Panhandle. The HREF puts
about 600-1000J in the Panhandle and shear is about 20 to 30 kts.
However, the RAP puts about 1500-2500J and 30-40kts over the
panhandle. The RAP may be overdoing the moisture push by the
shortwave as seen on midlevel water vapor. The HRRR is more aligned
with the HREF which aids in the higher confidence for the more
lackluster outcome. There is still the gusty showers but that would
seem like the greatest threat as the dynamics doesn`t scream large
hail.

For Friday, More mid level moisture pushes into the region ahead of
the next disturbance. This time the models are in more agreement
about the lack of shear tomorrow. Between the hi-res models shear
looks to be between 18-24kts with a few hundred joules of CAPE as
the upper level ridge seems to suppress most activity. Due to the
lack of shear any thunderstorm development will likely be pulsy and
there may be an isolated severe chance tomorrow as the storms pulse
up. Otherwise, scattered thunderstorms with a decent lightning
display looks to be the most favored option. SPC did put a Marginal
risk for the Nebraska Panhandle due to its hotter and more well
mixed environment more supportive of storms producing those severe
level winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 227 PM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Another week of hot and mostly dry weather expected for the region
as an upper-level ridge remains largely parked overhead. Generally
southwesterly flow will be present overhead Saturday through Monday,
which will enable daily afternoon shower and storm chances across
the region as the higher terrain acts to initiate storms. These
showers and storms will not be widespread and will likely produced
limited precipitation totals due to the dry conditions ongoing
across the region. Tuesday and Wednesday will be transitions days as
an upper-level high pushes into the Four Corners Region and flow
over the CWA turns more westerly Tuesday and then northwesterly for
Wednesday. As a result, precipitation chances will be even more
limited Tuesday and especially Wednesday as that high moves closer
to the CWA and becomes more dominant. This dominant high will remain
overhead for the remainder of the week, leading to very dry and warm
conditions Thursday onwards. The warmest day in the long term looks
to be Monday at this time, though Thursday and Friday look to inch
closer to the 100F mark across the Panhandle. With minimal
precipitation and warm and dry conditions, fire weather conditions
will likely return to the elevated level. Thankfully, winds look to
be fairly calm during the week, so Red Flag conditions may not be
met. Either way, with hot and dry conditions, fires will be more
likely to start and spread more easily, so use caution if burning
outdoors or camping.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Thu Aug 14 2025

A weak shortwave will likely produce some moderate rain showers
this evening between 20z and 04z. These showers might drop
visibilities down below 3sm. Continued with the Prob30 groups
with the terminals most confident with. There is some
speculation as to whether or not these showers will make it as
far north as KCDR but will amend once these showers develop and
the trajectory becomes more clear.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...MM